ABSTRACT
Background The extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and transmission in Mali and the surrounding region is not well understood, although infection has been confirmed in nearly 14,000 symptomatic individuals and their contacts since the first case in March 2020. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in three Malian communities, and understand factors associated with infection. Methods Between 27 July 2020 and 29 January 2021, we collected blood samples along with demographic, social, medical and self-reported symptoms information from residents aged 6 months and older in three study communities at two study visits. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using a highly specific two-antigen ELISA optimized for use in Mali. We calculated cumulative adjusted seroprevalence for each site and evaluated factors associated with serostatus at each visit by univariate and multivariate analysis. Findings Overall, 94.8% (2533/2672) of participants completed both study visits. A total of 50.3% (1343/2672) of participants were male, and 31.3% (837/2672) were aged <10 years, 27.6% (737/2672) were aged 10-17 years, and 41.1% (1098/2572) were aged >/=18 years. The cumulative SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate was 58.5% (95% CI: 47.5 to 69.4). This varied between sites and was 73.4% (95% CI: 59.2 to 87.5) in the urban community of Sotuba, 53.2% (95% CI: 42.8 to 63.6) in the rural town of Bancoumana, and 37.1% (95% CI: 29.6 to 44.5) in the rural village of Doneguebougou. This equates to an infection rate of approximately 1% of the population every three days in the study communities between visits. Increased age and study site were associated with serostatus at both study visits. There was minimal difference in reported symptoms based on serostatus. Interpretation The true extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Mali is greater than previously reported and now approaches hypothetical herd immunity in urban areas. The epidemiology of the pandemic in the region may be primarily subclinical and within background illness rates. In this setting, ongoing surveillance and augmentation of diagnostics to characterize locally circulating variants will be critical to implement effective mitigation strategies like vaccines. Funding This project was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and National Cancer Institute.
Subject(s)
Neoplasms , Drug Hypersensitivity , Communicable DiseasesABSTRACT
Background: Serological tests are an indispensable tool to understand the epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, particularly in areas where molecular diagnostics are limited. Poor assay performance may hinder the utility of these tests, including high rates of false-positivity previously reported in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods: From 312 Malian samples collected prior to 2020, we measured antibodies to the commonly tested SARS-CoV-2 antigens and four other betacoronaviruses by ELISA, and assessed functional cross-reactivity in a subset by SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus neutralization assay. We then evaluated the performance of a two-antigen test developed in the US, using SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and receptor-binding domain ELISA measurements. To optimize test performance, we compared single and two-antigen approaches using existing assay cutoffs and population-specific cutoffs for Malian control samples (positive and negative).Findings: Background reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 antigens was common in pre-pandemic samples compared to US controls (43·4% (135/311) for spike protein, 22·8% (71/312) for RBD, and 33·9% (79/233) for nucleocapsid protein). SARS-CoV-2 reactivity correlated weakly with other betacoronavirus reactivity, varied between Malian communities, and increased with age. No pre-pandemic samples demonstrated functional activity. Regardless of the cutoffs applied, specificity improved using a two-antigen approach. Test performance was optimal using a two-antigen assay with population-specific cutoffs derived from ROC curve analysis [Sensitivity: 73·9% (51·6-89·8), Specificity: 99·4% (97·7-99·9)].Interpretation: In the setting of high background reactivity, such as sub-Saharan Africa, SARS-CoV-2 serological assays need careful qualification is to characterize the epidemiology of disease, prevent unnecessary harm, and allocate resources for targeted control measures.Funding: This project was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, as well as the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: All pre-pandemic samples were collected during NIH-sponsored studies that were approved by the Malian USTTB FMPOS human research ethics committee and the NIAID/NIH institutional review board.Convalescent PCR-confirmed COVID-19 US positive control samples (n=10) were provided by the Adventist Hospital, Maryland. De-identified residual clinical samples for non-human subject research were obtained in accordance with 45 CFR 46.Convalescent samples were collected as part of a Public Health surveillance activity in collaboration with the Malian Ministry of Health COVID-19 Coordination Unit and with the approval of the USTTB FMOS-FAPH ethics committee (No2020/114/CE/FMOS/FAPH).